What Poppi’s shrinking earnout tells us

When PepsiCo bought the prebiotic soda brand Poppi in May 2025, it paid about $1.9bn in cash and agreed to pay a further $300m if certain performance milestones are met by the third quarter of 2027, and nothing otherwise. In its latest quarterly filing, for the period to 5 September 2026, PepsiCo puts the fair value of that payment at $12m, as Calcbench reported on 14 October. It stood at $278m at the end of December 2025 and at $117m in June.

• PepsiCo says Poppi grew sales volume by double digits in the third quarter and gained share in carbonated soft drinks, according to a Bloomberg report carried by The Star. The milestones are not disclosed, and the filing ties the value of the payment to net revenue and margin forecasts, which can fall even while volume grows.
• PepsiCo is still investing. On its third-quarter call it said it would put more behind Poppi, Mountain Dew and Pepsi, as Food Dive reported, and Poppi is adding Lift, an energy line with 70mg of caffeine, due next year. Sporked reports a second line, Chill, with magnesium and L-theanine.
• Poppi’s chief marketing officer Jenny Danzi has left PepsiCo and joined Unilever’s Liquid I.V. in the same role, as Food Dive reported on 3 November.

Why the forecasts fell is not public. An earnout turns the hardest question in any brand acquisition, whether growth carries over into a larger system, into a figure the buyer updates every quarter. For founders selling a fast-growing brand, the milestones can matter as much as the headline price. (Calcbench)